Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.3¢ → 0.1¢

-82% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$771.66

Total Shares772

Combined PnL+$3.1

Yes8 traders

Total Value$332.23

Total Shares664,468

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

39 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.5¢	$834.13	$771.66	+$3.1	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
BU BurstedBubbleCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.7K	$318.47	$-1.4K	— 4-5 (9)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$4.03	-$58.88	46% 271-319 (590)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$44.73	$2.87	-$41.92	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$2.51	$2.51	-$36.71	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$21.6	$1.7	-$19.85	65% 1075-583 (1658)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1.65	$1.65	-$24.16	7% 14-187 (201)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$0.96	-$14.1	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$651.13	$0.05	-$0.7	72% 8306-3183 (11489)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$834.13

Value

$771.66

PnL

+$3.1

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

BurstedBubbleCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,686.18

Value

$318.47

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

—

4-5 (9)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$58.88

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.73

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$41.92

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$36.71

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.6

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$19.85

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$24.16

Record

14-187 (201)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$14.1

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$651.13

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.7

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

39 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.