Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

2.6¢ → 1.5¢

-44% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares165,636

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

667h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NS NS13CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$732.86	$693.09	-$39.77	51% 386-365 (751)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$336.01	$509.82	+$173.82	41% 1998-2833 (4831)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$5	$405.49	+$13.87	56% 252-195 (447)
thefakenickCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$332.19	$178.4	-$153.79	56% 828-655 (1483)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$118.42	$171.71	+$53.29	52% 5892-5488 (11380)
0X 0x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeeaCTR	Yesavg 18.9¢	$2.2K	$165.53	$-2.0K	42% 1278-1761 (3039)
KE kegliCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$126.98	$135.34	+$8.36	51% 47-46 (93)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$66.88	$60.4	-$6.48	43% 1406-1836 (3242)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$77.29	$44.08	-$33.21	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$74.13	$40.83	-$33.3	41% 1399-2008 (3407)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yes	$12.99	$12.99	-$11.5	57% 17248-12904 (30152)

NS13CTR

Yes

Invested

$732.86

Value

$693.09

PnL

-$39.77

Record

51%

386-365 (751)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.01

Value

$509.82

PnL

+$173.82

Record

41%

1998-2833 (4831)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$405.49

PnL

+$13.87

Record

56%

252-195 (447)

thefakenickCTR

Yes

Invested

$332.19

Value

$178.4

PnL

-$153.79

Record

56%

828-655 (1483)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.42

Value

$171.71

PnL

+$53.29

Record

52%

5892-5488 (11380)

0x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeeaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,161.24

Value

$165.53

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

42%

1278-1761 (3039)

kegliCTR

Yes

Invested

$126.98

Value

$135.34

PnL

+$8.36

Record

51%

47-46 (93)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.88

Value

$60.4

PnL

-$6.48

Record

43%

1406-1836 (3242)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.29

Value

$44.08

PnL

-$33.21

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.13

Value

$40.83

PnL

-$33.3

Record

41%

1399-2008 (3407)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.99

Value

$12.99

PnL

-$11.5

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

667h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3791.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

3891.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.