Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $32 held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$31.97

Combined PnL

-$452.14

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.1¢

-93% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$31.97

Total Shares63,936

Combined PnL-$452.14

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

69 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$15.39	$15.39	-$225.12	7% 14-187 (201)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$45.43	$4.42	-$41.01	65% 1075-583 (1658)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$4.03	-$58.88	46% 271-319 (590)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$45.85	$2.94	-$42.97	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$2.52	$2.52	-$36.89	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
archaicCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$31.94	$1.51	-$30.43	85% 1906-339 (2245)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$0.95	-$13.94	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.15	$0.15	-$2.19	57% 3068-2356 (5424)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$651.34	$0.05	-$0.7	72% 8306-3183 (11489)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.39

Value

$15.39

PnL

-$225.12

Record

14-187 (201)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.43

Value

$4.42

PnL

-$41.01

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$58.88

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.85

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$42.97

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$36.89

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

archaicCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.94

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$30.43

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$13.94

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.19

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$651.34

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.7

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

69 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.