Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 1 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 13¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 11%
$4.0K
$-1.7K
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
13 consensus flips
11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 81.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$83.97 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 39¢ | $2.6K | $1.1K | $-2.2K | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $296.64 | $330.89 | +$34.25 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 Gohst | Noavg 26.7¢ | $101.95 | $326.05 | +$224.1 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 TBill1 | Noavg 75¢ | $225 | $256.5 | +$31.5 | 45% 154-188 (342) |
 TheKinginYellow | Noavg 71.7¢ | $119.34 | $142.27 | +$22.93 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $29.76 | $82.08 | +$52.32 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
IN insidero<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $31.34 | $43.92 | +$12.59 | 76% 291-93 (384) |
JA jaja5050<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $4.71 | $7.75 | +$3.04 | 63% 182-109 (291) |
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$1,637.4
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$83.97
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
Invested
$2,643.99
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$296.64
Value
$330.89
PnL
+$34.25
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
GohstInvested
$101.95
Value
$326.05
PnL
+$224.1
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
TBill1Invested
$225
Value
$256.5
PnL
+$31.5
Record
45%
154-188 (342)
TheKinginYellowInvested
$119.34
Value
$142.27
PnL
+$22.93
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
2B9S<$100Invested
$29.76
Value
$82.08
PnL
+$52.32
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$31.34
Value
$43.92
PnL
+$12.59
Record
76%
291-93 (384)
Invested
$4.71
Value
$7.75
PnL
+$3.04
Record
63%
182-109 (291)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.