Consensus PnL $4.9K · win rate 36% (586–1055, n=1641) · PM monthly #465 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.9K
Record
586W / 1055L
Win Rate
36.0%
of 1641 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2453
Source
PM monthly #465
Record (90 d)
57/1822 · 3%
Trades
162
Markets
1,964
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 24 on the consensus side (71%)- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes $313 · now 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $204 · now 15¢with the consensus (65% of 23)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $106 · now 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $90 · now 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $63 · now 13¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (94% of 16)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $33 · now 7¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
- Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?Yes $23 · now 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $23 · now 5¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
Specialties
924 settled consensus markets · held side won 5% at an average entry of 3¢- Weather
+7 pts
side won 12% of 179 · avg entry 5¢
ROI +6%
- Tennis
+2 pts
side won 4% of 51 · avg entry 2¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 5% of 21 · avg entry 3¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 0% of 25 at an average 8¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 100%(won 5% of 923)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.