Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$825.78

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.8¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares571,887

Combined PnL+$825.78

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

316 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.4K	$2.9K	+$1.2K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
JA jaja5050CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.0K	$652.14	-$373.89	63% 182-109 (291)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$632.23	$632.23	-$25.54	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$40.12	$45.68	+$5.55	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$27.83	+$3.07	26% 351-985 (1336)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100	Yes	$22.5	$22.5	-$1.61	60% 1348-884 (2232)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$24	$22.5	-$1.5	71% 968-396 (1364)
siickCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$17.59	$13.2	-$4.4	57% 768-580 (1348)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$2.16	$2.16	-$0.09	7% 14-187 (201)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,426.38

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

jaja5050CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,026.04

Value

$652.14

PnL

-$373.89

Record

63%

182-109 (291)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$632.23

Value

$632.23

PnL

-$25.54

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.12

Value

$45.68

PnL

+$5.55

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$27.83

PnL

+$3.07

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$1.61

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

siickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.59

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$4.4

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.09

Record

14-187 (201)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

316 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5398.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5498.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.