Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 96¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 27

Yes96¢No4¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 96¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares11,804

Combined PnL+$2.6K

No3 traders

Total Value$88.98

Total Shares2,253

Combined PnL-$212.01

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

118h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Yesavg 84.1¢	$3.9K	$4.5K	+$558.79	63% 175-101 (276)
thanksforplayin	Yesavg 54.4¢	$1.9K	$3.4K	+$1.5K	54% 304-254 (558)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Yesavg 85.1¢	$628.47	$1.8K	+$205.35	35% 558-1046 (1604)
HolyMoses7	Yesavg 84.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$148.8	53% 1543-1343 (2886)
ME melonmanm	Yesavg 58.4¢	$185	$240.13	+$55.13	65% 544-289 (833)
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557	Yes	$50	$160.61	+$113.79	43% 130-169 (299)
DO donthackmeCTR	Noavg 11.4¢	$146.14	$50.63	-$95.51	73% 11084-4092 (15176)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 14.9¢	$123.78	$32.79	-$90.98	35% 16955-31322 (48277)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 22.1¢	$31.08	$5.56	-$25.52	54% 7712-6458 (14170)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Yes

Invested

$3,924.2

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$558.79

Record

63%

175-101 (276)

thanksforplayin

Yes

Invested

$1,941.42

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

304-254 (558)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Yes

Invested

$628.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$205.35

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

HolyMoses7

Yes

Invested

$1,072.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$148.8

Record

53%

1543-1343 (2886)

melonmanm

Yes

Invested

$185

Value

$240.13

PnL

+$55.13

Record

65%

544-289 (833)

0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$160.61

PnL

+$113.79

Record

43%

130-169 (299)

donthackmeCTR

Invested

$146.14

Value

$50.63

PnL

-$95.51

Record

73%

11084-4092 (15176)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$123.78

Value

$32.79

PnL

-$90.98

Record

35%

16955-31322 (48277)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$31.08

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$25.52

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

118h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.