Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will New Orleans Saints win the 2026 NFC South?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 20¢ · $527 held · ends Jan 18, 2027

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Mon, Jan 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$526.89

Combined PnL

-$52.18

Smart Money Entry

23.2¢ → 20¢

-14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$253.59

Total Shares1,266

Combined PnL-$50.42

No1 trader

Total Value$37.41

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$1.75

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

862h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerARB<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$200.55	$235.41	+$19.89	41% 2322-3388 (5710)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.8¢	$154.79	$184.58	+$14.83
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.3¢	$77.67	$50.83	+$5.06
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$76.9	$87.7	+$10.8	41% 3647-5210 (8857)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$70.28	$66.93	-$3.35	55% 42191-34106 (76297)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR	Yesavg 38.4¢	$107.03	$55.68	-$51.34	44% 554-697 (1251)
AN anciano<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$39.17	$37.41	-$1.75	55% 1612-1331 (2943)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.1¢	$24.69	$18.2	-$6.49	48% 2178-2370 (4548)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$12.85	$15.59	+$1.96	26% 6-17 (23)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$10.68	$8.59	-$2.09	38% 2901-4738 (7639)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.8	$0.89	+$0.08	69% 16770-7378 (24148)

TimeTravelerARB<$100

Invested

$200.55

Value

$235.41

PnL

+$19.89

Record

41%

2322-3388 (5710)

Both legs:

No$154.7973.8¢+$14.83

Yes$77.6718.3¢+$5.06

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.9

Value

$87.7

PnL

+$10.8

Record

41%

3647-5210 (8857)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.28

Value

$66.93

PnL

-$3.35

Record

55%

42191-34106 (76297)

0x53eCc53E7CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.03

Value

$55.68

PnL

-$51.34

Record

44%

554-697 (1251)

anciano<$100

Invested

$39.17

Value

$37.41

PnL

-$1.75

Record

55%

1612-1331 (2943)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.69

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$6.49

Record

48%

2178-2370 (4548)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.85

Value

$15.59

PnL

+$1.96

Record

26%

6-17 (23)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.68

Value

$8.59

PnL

-$2.09

Record

38%

2901-4738 (7639)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$0.08

Record

69%

16770-7378 (24148)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

862h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.