Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 38¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$769.91

Smart Money Entry

18.2¢ → 37.5¢

+106% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,047

Combined PnL+$770.56

No4 traders

Total Value$422.18

Total Shares670

Combined PnL-$0.65

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

1235h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 16.6¢	$605.38	$1.4K	+$760.83	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 64.4¢	$260	$252	-$8	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Noavg 65.9¢	$97.95	$137.91	+$39.95	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.2¢	$47.74	$84.36	+$40.07
└ No leg	Noavg 65.9¢	$56.03	$53.55	-$0.12
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$108.24	$109.09	+$0.85	39% 175-269 (444)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.9¢	$73.88	$72.84	-$1.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.7¢	$34.46	$36.25	+$2.42
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 34.7¢	$96.78	$104.64	+$7.86	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$86.9	$94.85	+$7.94	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.4¢	$45.12	$47	+$1.87	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 63¢	$44.18	$43.84	-$0.35	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$31.75	$31.5	-$0.25	53% 6690-5887 (12577)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$605.38

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$760.83

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$260

Value

$252

PnL

-$8

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Invested

$97.95

Value

$137.91

PnL

+$39.95

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

Yes$47.7421.2¢+$40.07

No$56.0365.9¢-$0.12

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100

Invested

$108.24

Value

$109.09

PnL

+$0.85

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Both legs:

No$73.8863.9¢-$1.57

Yes$34.4635.7¢+$2.42

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$96.78

Value

$104.64

PnL

+$7.86

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$86.9

Value

$94.85

PnL

+$7.94

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.12

Value

$47

PnL

+$1.87

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$44.18

Value

$43.84

PnL

-$0.35

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$31.75

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

1235h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.4%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$153.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

253.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.