Will ON win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$3.5K
$17.77
97.3¢ → 97.7¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
95h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rafaleaoo | Noavg 96.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$18.55 | 2% 14-633 (647) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 98.1¢ | $878.88 | $877.05 | -$1.83 | 53% 1614-1416 (3030) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98¢ | $455.46 | $455.15 | -$0.31 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 97.8¢ | $295.43 | $295.27 | -$0.16 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 97.1¢ | $280.31 | $282.62 | +$2.31 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $51.27 | $52.81 | +$1.54 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $49.61 | $49.53 | -$0.08 | 45% 457-548 (1005) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $19.72 | $19.58 | -$0.14 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $20.92 | $19.02 | -$1.9 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $16.02 | $15.89 | -$0.13 | 52% 431-401 (832) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $9 | $8.93 | -$0.07 | 50% 445-444 (889) |
rafaleaooInvested
$1,378.22
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$18.55
Record
2%
14-633 (647)
Invested
$878.88
Value
$877.05
PnL
-$1.83
Record
53%
1614-1416 (3030)
balthazarInvested
$455.46
Value
$455.15
PnL
-$0.31
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Invested
$295.43
Value
$295.27
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
HaradwaithInvested
$280.31
Value
$282.62
PnL
+$2.31
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Invested
$51.27
Value
$52.81
PnL
+$1.54
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
Invested
$49.61
Value
$49.53
PnL
-$0.08
Record
45%
457-548 (1005)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.72
Value
$19.58
PnL
-$0.14
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$20.92
Value
$19.02
PnL
-$1.9
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Invested
$16.02
Value
$15.89
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
431-401 (832)
Invested
$9
Value
$8.93
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
445-444 (889)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
rafaleaoo
No — $1.4K
Bigggggggg
No — $877.05
balthazar
No — $455.15
cigarettes
No — $295.27
Haradwaith
No — $282.62
ghorrock
No — $52.81
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $49.53
Lucerys
No — $19.58
auros2
No — $19.02
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $15.89