Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $20 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$19.84

Combined PnL

-$412.02

Smart Money Entry

8.3¢ → 0.4¢

-96% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$18.39

Total Shares5,255

Combined PnL-$412.11

No1 trader

Total Value$1.45

Total Shares1

Combined PnL+$0.09

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

192 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MaxVisionCTR	Yesavg 12.9¢	$145.41	$5.8	-$198.42	37% 42-73 (115)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 5.9¢	$101.76	$5.6	-$96.17	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$40.13	$2.83	-$37.3	52% 284-262 (546)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$28.55	$2.32	-$26.23	50% 415-417 (832)
RA rated<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$1.37	$1.45	+$0.09	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	$46.2	$1.1	-$45.1	54% 229-195 (424)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR<$100	Yes	$0.43	$0.43	-$6.18	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.8	$0.18	-$2.85	53% 906-789 (1695)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$0	$0.14	+$0.14	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

MaxVisionCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.41

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$198.42

Record

37%

42-73 (115)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.76

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$96.17

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.13

Value

$2.83

PnL

-$37.3

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.55

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$26.23

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

rated<$100

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.09

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.2

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$45.1

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

NoMoreMisterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$6.18

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

immanuelcanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$2.85

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

192 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.