Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$59.92

Combined PnL

-$194.69

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.1¢

-78% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$59.91

Total Shares39,943

Combined PnL-$194.69

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

205 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$187.05	$37.5	-$149.55	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$50.71	$9.75	-$41.03	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$5	+$5	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$3	+$3	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$2.25	-$3.66	58% 1153-825 (1978)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$805.33	$2.18	-$8.48	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$1.0K	$0.15	+$0.15	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.05	+$0.05	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.2	$0.03	-$0.17	52% 1665-1535 (3200)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$187.05

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$149.55

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.71

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$41.03

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

PnL

+$5

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$3

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$3.66

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$805.33

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$8.48

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,013.46

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,118.41

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.17

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

205 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.