Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 96¢ · $12K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 18%

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$238.64

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 96.1¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares10,910

Combined PnL+$205.72

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares28,943

Combined PnL+$32.93

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4115h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DavidShekel	Noavg 94.6¢	$9.4K	$9.1K	+$141.1	58% 574-408 (982)
thefakenick	Noavg 91.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$64.62	56% 837-657 (1494)
NE neymar1CTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$563.83	$493.95	-$69.74	29% 331-828 (1159)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$278.79	$350.62	+$71.83	50% 6054-6154 (12208)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$20.07	$109.98	+$1.58	45% 2390-2958 (5348)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$80.51	$74.51	-$6	54% 21867-18991 (40858)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$43.99	$50.14	+$6.15	41% 2002-2836 (4838)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$15.53	$18.77	+$3.25	54% 26656-22371 (49027)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.9	$18.53	+$16.63	45% 13396-16320 (29716)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.62	$9.9	+$8.27	51% 2116-2028 (4144)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.43	$2.4	+$0.97	43% 3030-3984 (7014)

DavidShekel

Invested

$9,428.61

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$141.1

Record

58%

574-408 (982)

thefakenick

Invested

$1,277.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$64.62

Record

56%

837-657 (1494)

neymar1CTR

Yes

Invested

$563.83

Value

$493.95

PnL

-$69.74

Record

29%

331-828 (1159)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$278.79

Value

$350.62

PnL

+$71.83

Record

50%

6054-6154 (12208)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$20.07

Value

$109.98

PnL

+$1.58

Record

45%

2390-2958 (5348)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.51

Value

$74.51

PnL

-$6

Record

54%

21867-18991 (40858)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.99

Value

$50.14

PnL

+$6.15

Record

41%

2002-2836 (4838)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.53

Value

$18.77

PnL

+$3.25

Record

54%

26656-22371 (49027)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$16.63

Record

45%

13396-16320 (29716)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$8.27

Record

51%

2116-2028 (4144)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.97

Record

43%

3030-3984 (7014)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4115h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.