Consensus PnL $475K · win rate 61% (544–346, n=890) · was PM monthly #553 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$475.4K
Record
544W / 346L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 890 settled
Batting Avg
58.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1114
Source
PM monthly #553
Trades
1,703
Markets
1,288
Volume
$7.4M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 12 on the consensus side (92%)- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No $11K · now 91¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (69% of 16)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No $5.4K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $3.5K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 41)
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No $1.6K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (89% of 27)
- Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026?No $1.1K · now 92¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?No $421 · now 34¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $403 · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $397 · now 72¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
876 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 57¢- Esports
+6 pts
side won 57% of 501 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +6%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 65% of 111 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +5%
- Tech
+14 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 62¢
ROI −5%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 45% of 56 at an average 53¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 14% of 145)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 44% of 217)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 65% of 229)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 93% of 285)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.