Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 97¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 3

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$977.57

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 96.8¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares15,920

Combined PnL+$978.34

No1 trader

Total Value$0.4

Total Shares12

Combined PnL-$0.77

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Yesavg 91.6¢	$7.5K	$7.3K	+$400.94	89% 1665-205 (1870)
JJo	Yesavg 91¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$240.01	66% 944-496 (1440)
PL plumbis	Yesavg 91.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$124.96	57% 51-39 (90)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 90.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$166.68	38% 20-32 (52)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 91.6¢	$224.82	$239.54	+$14.72	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
4751346	Yesavg 88.5¢	$189.96	$208.24	+$18.28	72% 1257-483 (1740)
RO rocky42019	Yesavg 90.8¢	$186.77	$199.52	+$12.75	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 96.6¢	$19.97	$19.97	+$0	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 9.4¢	$1.13	$0.4	-$0.77	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$7,484.71

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$400.94

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

JJo

Yes

Invested

$3,641.97

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$240.01

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

plumbis

Yes

Invested

$1,966.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$124.96

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$1,602.38

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$166.68

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$224.82

Value

$239.54

PnL

+$14.72

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

4751346

Yes

Invested

$189.96

Value

$208.24

PnL

+$18.28

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

rocky42019

Yes

Invested

$186.77

Value

$199.52

PnL

+$12.75

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.97

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.77

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.