Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 81¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 4

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 80.5¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 81%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$21.6K

Total Shares26,702

Combined PnL+$2.2K

No3 traders

Total Value$445.54

Total Shares2,285

Combined PnL+$26.43

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scottilicious	Yesavg 71.9¢	$18.1K	$20.4K	+$2.2K	82% 945-201 (1146)
BA balerinacapuchina	Yesavg 77¢	$539	$567	+$24.5	72% 176-70 (246)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 20.7¢	$330.18	$338.87	+$8.69	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 83¢	$232.16	$226.56	-$6.99	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
DE dedidanc	Yesavg 67.1¢	$134.98	$163.08	+$27.18	57% 103-77 (180)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 76.7¢	$141.5	$149.5	+$8	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 64.8¢	$101.76	$127.98	+$24.74	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$0.9	$87.17	+$13.44	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 15.2¢	$15.2	$19.5	+$4.3	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$18,111.05

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

balerinacapuchina

Yes

Invested

$539

Value

$567

PnL

+$24.5

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$330.18

Value

$338.87

PnL

+$8.69

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$232.16

Value

$226.56

PnL

-$6.99

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

dedidanc

Yes

Invested

$134.98

Value

$163.08

PnL

+$27.18

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$141.5

Value

$149.5

PnL

+$8

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$101.76

Value

$127.98

PnL

+$24.74

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$0.9

Value

$87.17

PnL

+$13.44

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$4.3

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 81%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.1%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.