Consensus PnL $36K · win rate 81% (169–40, n=209) · was PM monthly #429 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$36.2K
Record
169W / 40L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 209 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#413
Source
PM monthly #429
Trades
38
Markets
244
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 14 on the consensus side (79%)- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes $21K · now 90¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.7K · now 74¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.1K · now 75¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (56% of 39)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $3.9K · now 76¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (74% of 39)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 78¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (66% of 30)
- Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?No $2.7K · now 92¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (80% of 20)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No $2.2K · now 75¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (41% of 39)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $2.1K · now 70¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (76% of 95)
Specialties
164 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 75¢- Elections
+13 pts
side won 95% of 39 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +9%
- Weather
+13 pts
side won 83% of 18 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +17%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 22% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 25% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 85% of 26)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 94% of 116)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.