Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 85¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 4

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 84.5¢

+19% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 85%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares12,664

Combined PnL+$1.6K

No2 traders

Total Value$92.8

Total Shares580

Combined PnL-$87.35

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

389h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 68.9¢	$6.3K	$7.6K	+$1.4K	61% 203-132 (335)
Chungvicular	Yesavg 82¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$30	46% 49-57 (106)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 78.1¢	$921.29	$874.77	+$94.36	38% 20-32 (52)
BigRabbit	Yesavg 68¢	$339.99	$414.99	+$72.5	40% 704-1061 (1765)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 71.1¢	$135.78	$158.4	+$22.62	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 71.6¢	$103.75	$121.75	+$17.99	69% 156-69 (225)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Noavg 28¢	$206.39	$91.2	-$83	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
RememberAmalek<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$61	$83	+$21.5	56% 973-769 (1742)
GayPride<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$62	$83	+$22	49% 357-367 (724)
DE dedidancCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$6.1	$1.6	-$4.35	57% 103-77 (180)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$6,264.86

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Chungvicular

Yes

Invested

$1,230

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$30

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$921.29

Value

$874.77

PnL

+$94.36

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

BigRabbit

Yes

Invested

$339.99

Value

$414.99

PnL

+$72.5

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$135.78

Value

$158.4

PnL

+$22.62

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$103.75

Value

$121.75

PnL

+$17.99

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$206.39

Value

$91.2

PnL

-$83

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

RememberAmalek<$100

Yes

Invested

$61

Value

$83

PnL

+$21.5

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

GayPride<$100

Yes

Invested

$62

Value

$83

PnL

+$22

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

dedidancCTR<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$4.35

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 85%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

389h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.0%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.