Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 65¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 4

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 64.5¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares22,499

Combined PnL+$2.2K

No2 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares14,571

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 40¢	$3.2K	$5.1K	+$1.9K	61% 203-132 (335)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 61.5¢	$8.6K	$4.9K	$-3.6K	47% 474-534 (1008)
twinna	Yesavg 63.4¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$83.8	50% 92-93 (185)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 64.1¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$19.71	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
BigRabbit	Yesavg 54.8¢	$427.95	$499.96	+$75.91	40% 704-1061 (1765)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 58¢	$443.33	$487.35	+$47.94	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
CO cowcatCTR	Noavg 45¢	$306.44	$233.69	-$65.2	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 52¢	$104.12	$114.27	+$24.03	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100	Yesavg 54.6¢	$78.48	$92.71	+$14.22	69% 156-69 (225)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Yesavg 58.5¢	$23.4	$25.8	+$2.4	38% 20-32 (52)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$3,182.54

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$8,550.93

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

twinna

Yes

Invested

$4,850.33

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$83.8

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$3,215.36

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$19.71

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

BigRabbit

Yes

Invested

$427.95

Value

$499.96

PnL

+$75.91

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$443.33

Value

$487.35

PnL

+$47.94

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

cowcatCTR

Invested

$306.44

Value

$233.69

PnL

-$65.2

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$104.12

Value

$114.27

PnL

+$24.03

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.48

Value

$92.71

PnL

+$14.22

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.4

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$2.4

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.4%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.