Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 4.2¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$659.09

Smart Money Entry

3.4¢ → 4.2¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares82,092

Combined PnL+$659.06

No1 trader

Total Value$4.79

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$214.61	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$438.18	$604.2	+$166.02	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$365.49	$574.53	+$209.04	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$51.81	$263.67	+$80.99	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
bosshogCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$250	$210	-$39.98	72% 1052-415 (1467)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$7.2	$77.14	+$20.44	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$25.72	$33.4	+$7.68	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$4.76	$4.79	+$0.03	73% 41-15 (56)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.22	$0.26	+$0.26	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,470.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$214.61

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$438.18

Value

$604.2

PnL

+$166.02

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$365.49

Value

$574.53

PnL

+$209.04

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$51.81

Value

$263.67

PnL

+$80.99

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

bosshogCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$210

PnL

-$39.98

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$77.14

PnL

+$20.44

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.72

Value

$33.4

PnL

+$7.68

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0.03

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.26

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.4%

4.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1753.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

1853.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.