Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 88¢ · $884 held

Yes12¢No88¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$883.89

Combined PnL

$180.13

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 87.6¢

+78% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$813.1

Total Shares1,112

Combined PnL+$344.79

Yes2 traders

Total Value$70.79

Total Shares263

Combined PnL-$164.66

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
iutwpfal	Noavg 50.5¢	$30.8	$284.43	+$59.41	57% 412-313 (725)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Noavg 40.2¢	$69.92	$191.45	+$121.53	45% 112-138 (250)
Xeny	Noavg 38¢	$49.77	$154.44	+$104.67	60% 978-662 (1640)
SE SeniorLaghetto<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$57.44	$73.1	+$15.66	69% 404-180 (584)
libratus1CTR	Yesavg 78.4¢	$197.69	$67.82	-$163.65	63% 642-372 (1014)
DE dedidanc<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$24.11	$44.41	+$20.3	57% 103-77 (180)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$31.84	$44.36	+$12.51	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
0xdc3E831cad<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$10.21	$20.92	+$10.71	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.3¢	$3.98	$2.98	-$1	39% 175-269 (444)

iutwpfal

Invested

$30.8

Value

$284.43

PnL

+$59.41

Record

57%

412-313 (725)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

Invested

$69.92

Value

$191.45

PnL

+$121.53

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

Xeny

Invested

$49.77

Value

$154.44

PnL

+$104.67

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

SeniorLaghetto<$100

Invested

$57.44

Value

$73.1

PnL

+$15.66

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

libratus1CTR

Yes

Invested

$197.69

Value

$67.82

PnL

-$163.65

Record

63%

642-372 (1014)

dedidanc<$100

Invested

$24.11

Value

$44.41

PnL

+$20.3

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$31.84

Value

$44.36

PnL

+$12.51

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

0xdc3E831cad<$100

Invested

$10.21

Value

$20.92

PnL

+$10.71

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.98

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$1

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.