Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held

Yes11¢No89¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$137.96

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 89¢

+83% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$700.38

Total Shares1,015

Combined PnL+$410.97

Yes7 traders

Total Value$355.72

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL-$273

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1309h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

30 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Noavg 30.8¢	$55.12	$351.41	+$296.29	45% 112-138 (250)
tja	Noavg 66.3¢	$234.29	$348.97	+$114.68	73% 867-323 (1190)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$135	$155	-$80	36% 397-691 (1088)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$105.26	$85.87	-$74.79	64% 633-352 (985)
libratus1CTR	Yesavg 66.1¢	$115.57	$41.84	-$82.33	63% 642-372 (1014)
DE dedidancCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.1¢	$48.49	$30.11	-$18.38	57% 103-77 (180)
HI hithitfarCTR<$100	Yes	$28.25	$28.25	-$3.65	58% 640-469 (1109)
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$10	$8.38	-$7.03	57% 271-203 (474)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$13.11	$6.27	-$6.84	63% 166-99 (265)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

Invested

$55.12

Value

$351.41

PnL

+$296.29

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

tja

Invested

$234.29

Value

$348.97

PnL

+$114.68

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$135

Value

$155

PnL

-$80

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.26

Value

$85.87

PnL

-$74.79

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

libratus1CTR

Yes

Invested

$115.57

Value

$41.84

PnL

-$82.33

Record

63%

642-372 (1014)

dedidancCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.49

Value

$30.11

PnL

-$18.38

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

hithitfarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.25

Value

$28.25

PnL

-$3.65

Record

58%

640-469 (1109)

KiruaTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$7.03

Record

57%

271-203 (474)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.11

Value

$6.27

PnL

-$6.84

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1309h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

30 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.4%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.