Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$3.43

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 65¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$439.94

Total Shares1,257

Combined PnL+$36.14

Yes7 traders

Total Value$862.83

Total Shares1,327

Combined PnL-$39.57

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcatCTR	Noavg 33¢	$398.3	$422.44	+$24.14	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 68.4¢	$431.4	$409.91	-$21.49	94% 442-28 (470)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 62.6¢	$186	$195	+$9	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 70.4¢	$135.46	$112.82	-$9.43	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$68.52	$57.84	-$10.68	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
LI lineth<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$43.55	$42.25	-$1.3	41% 245-350 (595)
Ryxon21<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$47.54	$41.76	-$5.78	71% 318-130 (448)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$5.5	$17.5	+$12	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.25	+$0.1	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

cowcatCTR

Invested

$398.3

Value

$422.44

PnL

+$24.14

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$431.4

Value

$409.91

PnL

-$21.49

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$186

Value

$195

PnL

+$9

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$135.46

Value

$112.82

PnL

-$9.43

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.52

Value

$57.84

PnL

-$10.68

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

lineth<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.55

Value

$42.25

PnL

-$1.3

Record

41%

245-350 (595)

Ryxon21<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.54

Value

$41.76

PnL

-$5.78

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$12

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.9%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$49.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.