Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 75¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$310.89

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 74.5¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,999

Combined PnL+$551.09

Yes5 traders

Total Value$264.27

Total Shares1,016

Combined PnL-$240.2

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

682h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Noavg 64.4¢	$3.6K	$4.2K	+$546.04	69% 804-359 (1163)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 72.6¢	$204.55	$208.5	+$3.95	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 54.5¢	$221.23	$95.68	-$125.55	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$102.03	$84.56	-$17.48	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
HO HotDogsCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$124.85	$59.02	-$65.83	94% 442-28 (470)
ME Melody626<$100	Noavg 74¢	$38.21	$38.21	+$0	58% 705-521 (1226)
IM immanuelcanCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$179.76	$22.41	-$31.34	53% 906-789 (1695)
11 11122<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$2.6	$3.7	+$1.1	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$2.6	$2.6	+$0	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

mrworldwide

Invested

$3,642.59

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$546.04

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$204.55

Value

$208.5

PnL

+$3.95

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$221.23

Value

$95.68

PnL

-$125.55

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$102.03

Value

$84.56

PnL

-$17.48

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

HotDogsCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.85

Value

$59.02

PnL

-$65.83

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Melody626<$100

Invested

$38.21

Value

$38.21

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

immanuelcanCTR

Yes

Invested

$179.76

Value

$22.41

PnL

-$31.34

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

11122<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$1.1

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

682h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.