Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 44¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 43.5¢

-40% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares7,217

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,162

Combined PnL+$582.76

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

682h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 73.9¢	$4.4K	$2.6K	$-1.8K	47% 474-534 (1008)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 35.6¢	$855.71	$1.4K	+$501.95	61% 203-132 (335)
mrworldwide	Noavg 41¢	$213.76	$291.96	+$80.81	69% 804-359 (1163)
LI linethCTR	Yesavg 69¢	$398.13	$259.65	-$141.36	41% 245-350 (595)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 64¢	$167.12	$144.59	-$22.53	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 56¢	$133.04	$133.04	+$0	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 72¢	$158.4	$99	-$62.7	57% 51-39 (90)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$7.65	$70.47	-$43.66	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$21.52	$22.52	+$0.25	70% 3189-1369 (4558)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,357.21

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$855.71

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$501.95

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

mrworldwide

Invested

$213.76

Value

$291.96

PnL

+$80.81

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

linethCTR

Yes

Invested

$398.13

Value

$259.65

PnL

-$141.36

Record

41%

245-350 (595)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$167.12

Value

$144.59

PnL

-$22.53

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$133.04

Value

$133.04

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$158.4

Value

$99

PnL

-$62.7

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$70.47

PnL

-$43.66

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.52

Value

$22.52

PnL

+$0.25

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

682h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.5%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$119.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

219.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.