Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 60¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$561.84

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 59.5¢

-14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,706

Combined PnL-$625.48

No4 traders

Total Value$424.79

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL+$63.64

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcat	Yesavg 71¢	$3.8K	$3.2K	-$612.22	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 59.6¢	$473.82	$592.01	-$9.23	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
SB sbimbgARB<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$512.17	$550.46	+$48.15	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57¢	$374.74	$381.31	+$16.44
└ No leg	Noavg 25.1¢	$106.27	$169.15	+$31.72
twinnaCTR	Noavg 32.2¢	$165.47	$205.82	+$40.34	50% 92-93 (185)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Noavg 37¢	$139.64	$148.95	+$9.31	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 62.6¢	$111.36	$100.12	-$3.83	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Noavg 31.3¢	$47	$60.75	+$13.75	38% 20-32 (52)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$12.2	$11.6	-$0.2	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$9.04	$9.28	+$0.24	76% 11352-3524 (14876)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$3,798.24

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$612.22

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$473.82

Value

$592.01

PnL

-$9.23

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

sbimbgARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$512.17

Value

$550.46

PnL

+$48.15

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Both legs:

Yes$374.7457¢+$16.44

No$106.2725.1¢+$31.72

twinnaCTR

Invested

$165.47

Value

$205.82

PnL

+$40.34

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Invested

$139.64

Value

$148.95

PnL

+$9.31

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$111.36

Value

$100.12

PnL

-$3.83

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Invested

$47

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$13.75

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.2

Value

$11.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$9.28

PnL

+$0.24

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.5%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.