Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 27¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$109.23

Smart Money Entry

34.7¢ → 26.5¢

-24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$558.83

Total Shares760

Combined PnL+$102.82

Yes4 traders

Total Value$684.98

Total Shares2,585

Combined PnL-$212.05

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 64.8¢	$319.88	$363.09	+$43.21	38% 20-32 (52)
SardinianshepherdCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$350	$265	-$85	65% 928-506 (1434)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$310.42	$241.94	-$68.47	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$227.79	$172.47	-$55.32	55% 1191-966 (2157)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$52.14	$76.6	+$26.6	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836<$100	Noavg 50.6¢	$43.56	$63.27	+$19.71	61% 203-132 (335)
Chungvicular<$100	Noavg 59¢	$41.3	$51.45	+$10.15	46% 49-57 (106)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$8.82	$5.57	-$3.26	47% 4649-5169 (9818)
Gohst<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.26	$4.42	+$3.16	49% 738-770 (1508)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$319.88

Value

$363.09

PnL

+$43.21

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

SardinianshepherdCTR

Yes

Invested

$350

Value

$265

PnL

-$85

Record

65%

928-506 (1434)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$310.42

Value

$241.94

PnL

-$68.47

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$227.79

Value

$172.47

PnL

-$55.32

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$52.14

Value

$76.6

PnL

+$26.6

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836<$100

Invested

$43.56

Value

$63.27

PnL

+$19.71

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Chungvicular<$100

Invested

$41.3

Value

$51.45

PnL

+$10.15

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.82

Value

$5.57

PnL

-$3.26

Record

47%

4649-5169 (9818)

Gohst<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$3.16

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.3%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$253.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

353.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.