Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
9
Yes 78%
$3.3K
$38.11
93.2¢ → 94.8¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 95%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AngryRhino | Yesavg 92.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$33.07 | 69% 133-59 (192) |
 elmcap2 | Yesavg 94¢ | $1,000 | $945 | +$5 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
IN insidero | Yesavg 94.1¢ | $453.75 | $455.49 | +$1.74 | 76% 291-93 (384) |
VO Votei14Voude22 | Yesavg 95.2¢ | $250 | $249.64 | -$0.36 | 78% 341-99 (440) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 92.4¢ | $165.54 | $169.23 | +$3.69 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 DEGENKHAN<$100 | Yesavg 91.9¢ | $54.38 | $55.95 | +$1.58 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.4¢ | $35 | $29.74 | -$5.26 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 5.7¢ | $19.35 | $17.49 | -$1.85 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
HO HotDogs<$100 | Yesavg 90.3¢ | $10.92 | $11.43 | +$0.51 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
AngryRhinoInvested
$1,361.96
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$33.07
Record
69%
133-59 (192)
elmcap2Invested
$1,000
Value
$945
PnL
+$5
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
Invested
$453.75
Value
$455.49
PnL
+$1.74
Record
76%
291-93 (384)
Invested
$250
Value
$249.64
PnL
-$0.36
Record
78%
341-99 (440)
Invested
$165.54
Value
$169.23
PnL
+$3.69
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
DEGENKHAN<$100Invested
$54.38
Value
$55.95
PnL
+$1.58
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$35
Value
$29.74
PnL
-$5.26
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$19.35
Value
$17.49
PnL
-$1.85
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$11.43
PnL
+$0.51
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.