Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 96¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 4

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$175.58

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 95.6¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares12,053

Combined PnL+$175.58

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

666h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Yesavg 94.6¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$41.54	89% 1665-205 (1870)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 95.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$7.36	76% 102-32 (134)
AngryRhino	Yesavg 93.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$43.69	69% 133-59 (192)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 92.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$53.61	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
IN insidero	Yesavg 94.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.44	76% 291-93 (384)
probability	Yesavg 90¢	$234.05	$248.56	+$14.51	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 95¢	$199.03	$200.29	+$1.36	89% 4652-547 (5199)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Yesavg 94.7¢	$145.76	$147.22	+$1.46	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
Talophex<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$93	$95.6	+$2.6	91% 929-95 (1024)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$41.54

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$2,095.58

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$7.36

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

AngryRhino

Yes

Invested

$2,060.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$43.69

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$1,683.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$53.61

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

insidero

Yes

Invested

$1,052.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.44

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

probability

Yes

Invested

$234.05

Value

$248.56

PnL

+$14.51

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$199.03

Value

$200.29

PnL

+$1.36

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Yes

Invested

$145.76

Value

$147.22

PnL

+$1.46

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Talophex<$100

Yes

Invested

$93

Value

$95.6

PnL

+$2.6

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

666h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.