Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $13K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$364.18

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 98.6¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares13,020

Combined PnL+$421.58

Yes4 traders

Total Value$18.39

Total Shares1,269

Combined PnL-$57.41

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

5030h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Alegrandebig	Noavg 97.7¢	$10.1K	$7.1K	+$59.83	94% 2542-150 (2692)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 93¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$133.54	97% 143-4 (147)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 91.5¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$169.21	89% 2372-295 (2667)
Slowroasted	Noavg 92¢	$767.06	$821.67	+$54.61	88% 2127-286 (2413)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 96.3¢	$185.63	$190.01	+$4.39	77% 12942-3921 (16863)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$54	$8.7	-$45.3	41% 2188-3126 (5314)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$9.89	$6.9	-$2.99	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
QW qWOprt7CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$10	$1.47	-$8.53	38% 473-763 (1236)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$1.91	$1.33	-$0.58	59% 1024-716 (1740)

Alegrandebig

Invested

$10,105.97

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$59.83

Record

94%

2542-150 (2692)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$2,237.75

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$133.54

Record

97%

143-4 (147)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$2,196

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$169.21

Record

89%

2372-295 (2667)

Slowroasted

Invested

$767.06

Value

$821.67

PnL

+$54.61

Record

88%

2127-286 (2413)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$185.63

Value

$190.01

PnL

+$4.39

Record

77%

12942-3921 (16863)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$45.3

Record

41%

2188-3126 (5314)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.89

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$2.99

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

qWOprt7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$8.53

Record

38%

473-763 (1236)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.58

Record

59%

1024-716 (1740)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

5030h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.