Will Together win 9-11% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$4.2K
$1.8K
57.7¢ → 99.1¢
+72% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Late
129h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The-Joker | Yesavg 53.2¢ | $596.9 | $1.1K | +$514.92 | 68% 1518-711 (2229) |
LA lava-lava | Yesavg 55¢ | $611.25 | $1.1K | +$490.06 | 43% 535-721 (1256) |
 thanksforplayin | Yesavg 58¢ | $414.56 | $708.21 | +$293.65 | 54% 304-254 (558) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702 | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $152.23 | $572.6 | +$233.87 | 36% 635-1125 (1760) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Yesavg 73.6¢ | $160.92 | $195.72 | +$50.22 | 28% 5957-15587 (21544) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 87.3¢ | $157.05 | $178.59 | +$21.54 | 53% 7528-6656 (14184) |
 vinii | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $43.05 | $143.62 | +$100.57 | 73% 2835-1046 (3881) |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960 | Yesavg 83.2¢ | $103.99 | $123.81 | +$19.82 | 63% 175-101 (276) |
 HolyMoses7<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $32.99 | $59.42 | +$26.43 | 53% 1543-1343 (2886) |
The-JokerInvested
$596.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$514.92
Record
68%
1518-711 (2229)
Invested
$611.25
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$490.06
Record
43%
535-721 (1256)
thanksforplayinInvested
$414.56
Value
$708.21
PnL
+$293.65
Record
54%
304-254 (558)
Invested
$152.23
Value
$572.6
PnL
+$233.87
Record
36%
635-1125 (1760)
Invested
$160.92
Value
$195.72
PnL
+$50.22
Record
28%
5957-15587 (21544)
Invested
$157.05
Value
$178.59
PnL
+$21.54
Record
53%
7528-6656 (14184)
viniiInvested
$43.05
Value
$143.62
PnL
+$100.57
Record
73%
2835-1046 (3881)
Invested
$103.99
Value
$123.81
PnL
+$19.82
Record
63%
175-101 (276)
HolyMoses7<$100Invested
$32.99
Value
$59.42
PnL
+$26.43
Record
53%
1543-1343 (2886)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
The-Joker
Yes — $1.1K
lava-lava
Yes — $1.1K
thanksforplayin
Yes — $708.21
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
Yes — $572.6
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271
Yes — $195.72
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
Yes — $178.59
vinii
Yes — $143.62
0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960
Yes — $123.81
HolyMoses7
Yes — $59.42