Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $20K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$20.5K
$62.67
93.7¢ → 96.4¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $14.9K | $14.3K | +$272.52 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 wish- | Noavg 95.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$6.56 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$132.16 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
AV aviato | Noavg 92.4¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$17.44 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
 Car | Noavg 92.7¢ | $981.96 | $994.76 | +$12.81 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $614.79 | $654.49 | +$39.7 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 bernardbulletinCTR | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $574.33 | $278.74 | -$295.59 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
EA EatprayloveCTR | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $190 | $75 | -$115 | 57% 766-585 (1351) |
 fireponbabylonCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $23.37 | $15.44 | -$7.93 | 43% 370-481 (851) |
elmcap2Invested
$14,907.97
Value
$14.3K
PnL
+$272.52
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
wish-Invested
$1,727.82
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$6.56
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$1,246.92
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$132.16
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$17.44
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
CarInvested
$981.96
Value
$994.76
PnL
+$12.81
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$614.79
Value
$654.49
PnL
+$39.7
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
bernardbulletinCTRInvested
$574.33
Value
$278.74
PnL
-$295.59
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$190
Value
$75
PnL
-$115
Record
57%
766-585 (1351)
fireponbabylonCTR<$100Invested
$23.37
Value
$15.44
PnL
-$7.93
Record
43%
370-481 (851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.