Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 91¢ · $13K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$13.1K
$38.13
82.1¢ → 91¢
+11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
255h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 boyau | Noavg 78¢ | $6.2K | $7.3K | +$1.1K | 37% 125-209 (334) |
LU LulaVaiPerder | Noavg 90¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$34.27 | 0% 0-33 (33) |
VO Votei14Voude22 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$37.65 | 3% 1-30 (31) |
WO woshiLimpeh | Noavg 86.5¢ | $804.3 | $851.2 | +$46.91 | — |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $1.8K | $713.5 | $-1.1K | 60% 497-335 (832) |
TE test456y78 | Noavg 81.2¢ | $298.78 | $336.72 | +$37.94 | 18% 13-61 (74) |
 EgoVolae | Noavg 89¢ | $230.39 | $236.87 | +$6.47 | — 6-7 (13) |
PB pbshineCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $200 | $170 | -$30 | — 2-7 (9) |
HU hugecaulkCTR | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $174 | $110.5 | -$63.5 | 5% 1-19 (20) |
SS ssddssdCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $2.64 | $1.32 | -$1.32 | 3% 4-146 (150) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $2.76 | $0.87 | -$1.89 | 85% 29-5 (34) |
boyauInvested
$6,223.29
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
37%
125-209 (334)
Invested
$2,056
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$34.27
Record
0%
0-33 (33)
Invested
$1,234
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$37.65
Record
3%
1-30 (31)
Invested
$804.3
Value
$851.2
PnL
+$46.91
Record
—
paddaaCTRInvested
$1,819.12
Value
$713.5
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
60%
497-335 (832)
Invested
$298.78
Value
$336.72
PnL
+$37.94
Record
18%
13-61 (74)
EgoVolaeInvested
$230.39
Value
$236.87
PnL
+$6.47
Record
—
6-7 (13)
Invested
$200
Value
$170
PnL
-$30
Record
—
2-7 (9)
Invested
$174
Value
$110.5
PnL
-$63.5
Record
5%
1-19 (20)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$1.32
Record
3%
4-146 (150)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$1.89
Record
85%
29-5 (34)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.