Consensus PnL $276K · win rate 77% (253–74, n=327) · was PM monthly #682 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$276.1K
Record
253W / 74L
Win Rate
77.0%
of 327 settled
Batting Avg
71.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#517
Source
PM monthly #682 + pinned
Trades
6,229
Markets
461
Volume
$4.1M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 13 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $157K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $145K · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?Yes $54K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (69% of 13)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes $25K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Yes $13K · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $13K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $12K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $11K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
Specialties
368 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 83¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 86% of 190 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +14%
- Soccer
+8 pts
side won 90% of 58 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +2%
- Finance
+6 pts
side won 95% of 57 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 20% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 75% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 78% of 27)
- 70¢ and up: 85%(won 93% of 314)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.