Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Andrea Lazaro Garcia, while the market favors Jazmin Ortenzi (69%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sopo: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Jazmin Ortenzi

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Andrea Lazaro Garcia (54%) · Andrea Lazaro Garcia at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Andrea Lazaro Garcia32¢Jazmin Ortenzi68¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Consensus Traders

Andrea Lazaro Garcia 54%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$130.31

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 31.5¢

-15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAndrea Lazaro Garcia at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Jazmin Ortenzi 69%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Andrea Lazaro Garcia32%

Jazmin Ortenzi69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazmin Ortenzi6 traders

Total Value$865.6

Total Shares1,121

Combined PnL+$151.65

Andrea Lazaro Garcia7 traders

Total Value$916.43

Total Shares3,225

Combined PnL-$281.96

Jazmin Ortenzi — 46%Andrea Lazaro Garcia — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Andrea Lazaro Garcia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazmin Ortenzi) and the top 1000 (13 on Andrea Lazaro Garcia) disagree here.

sharpJazmin Ortenzi 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAndrea Lazaro Garcia 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazmin Ortenzi 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Andrea Lazaro Garcia 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Jazmin Ortenziavg 46¢	$230.91	$351.91	+$121	31% 379-844 (1223)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 40.3¢	$461.58	$322.58	-$139	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
LI Limousin	Jazmin Ortenziavg 45.6¢	$165.32	$264.45	+$99.13	30% 373-868 (1241)
VE VenusianCTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 27.9¢	$250.12	$250.85	+$0.73	31% 380-865 (1245)
FL Flaznorp	Jazmin Ortenziavg 73¢	$297.5	$169.84	-$77.45	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
38 38791873984189CTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 52¢	$241.47	$135.77	-$105.7	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 30¢	$83.93	$78.34	-$5.6	23% 120-406 (526)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 39¢	$95.16	$68.32	-$26.84	49% 98-102 (200)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 30¢	$63.33	$59.17	-$4.16	42% 110-152 (262)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 65.2¢	$32.48	$33.42	+$0.94	56% 3843-3017 (6860)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 72¢	$25.2	$25.72	+$0.52	22% 136-488 (624)
LI LightParadox<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 46¢	$12.77	$20.27	+$7.5	30% 373-864 (1237)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 56¢	$2.8	$1.4	-$1.4	32% 285-613 (898)

MadridTime

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$230.91

Value

$351.91

PnL

+$121

Record

31%

379-844 (1223)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$461.58

Value

$322.58

PnL

-$139

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

Limousin

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$165.32

Value

$264.45

PnL

+$99.13

Record

30%

373-868 (1241)

VenusianCTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$250.12

Value

$250.85

PnL

+$0.73

Record

31%

380-865 (1245)

Flaznorp

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$297.5

Value

$169.84

PnL

-$77.45

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

38791873984189CTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$241.47

Value

$135.77

PnL

-$105.7

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

babybellsCTR<$100

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$83.93

Value

$78.34

PnL

-$5.6

Record

23%

120-406 (526)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$95.16

Value

$68.32

PnL

-$26.84

Record

49%

98-102 (200)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$63.33

Value

$59.17

PnL

-$4.16

Record

42%

110-152 (262)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$32.48

Value

$33.42

PnL

+$0.94

Record

56%

3843-3017 (6860)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$25.2

Value

$25.72

PnL

+$0.52

Record

22%

136-488 (624)

LightParadox<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$12.77

Value

$20.27

PnL

+$7.5

Record

30%

373-864 (1237)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$2.8

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$1.4

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

Research grade

NeutralAndrea Lazaro Garcia at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Jazmin Ortenzi 69%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Andrea Lazaro Garcia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazmin Ortenzi) and the top 1000 (13 on Andrea Lazaro Garcia) disagree here.

sharpJazmin Ortenzi 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAndrea Lazaro Garcia 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazmin Ortenzi 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Andrea Lazaro Garcia 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Andrea Lazaro Garcia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.