Cali: Carole Monnet vs Maria Herazo
5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Carole Monnet (45%) · Carole Monnet at 99¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Carole Monnet
11
Carole Monnet 45%
$10.9K
-$200.06
97.4¢ → 99¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCarole Monnet at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Carole Monnetavg 97.3¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$44.64 | 51% 23399-22168 (45567) |
VE Venusian | Carole Monnetavg 97.1¢ | $3.6K | $3.4K | -$242.84 | 53% 916-813 (1729) |
LI Limousin | Carole Monnetavg 97.9¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$21.09 | 56% 942-736 (1678) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Maria Herazoavg 4.1¢ | $24.91 | $57.56 | +$32.66 | 53% 59038-51355 (110393) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Carole Monnetavg 96.2¢ | $48.12 | $45.25 | -$2.87 | 57% 18986-14047 (33033) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Maria Herazoavg 4.5¢ | $6.37 | $13.41 | +$7.04 | 54% 906-787 (1693) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100 | Maria Herazoavg 1.7¢ | $44.02 | $11.56 | -$32.46 | 52% 6711-6252 (12963) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Maria Herazoavg 5.5¢ | $4.68 | $8.13 | +$3.45 | 52% 830-771 (1601) |
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100 | Maria Herazoavg 3.3¢ | $40.4 | $6.76 | -$31.05 | 52% 702-642 (1344) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Carole Monnetavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $4.53 | -$0.17 | 52% 8455-7711 (16166) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Maria Herazoavg 5¢ | $0.51 | $0.97 | +$0.46 | 74% 2370-822 (3192) |
Invested
$4,569.95
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$44.64
Record
51%
23399-22168 (45567)
Invested
$3,595.87
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$242.84
Record
53%
916-813 (1729)
Invested
$2,767.28
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$21.09
Record
56%
942-736 (1678)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$24.91
Value
$57.56
PnL
+$32.66
Record
53%
59038-51355 (110393)
Invested
$48.12
Value
$45.25
PnL
-$2.87
Record
57%
18986-14047 (33033)
Invested
$6.37
Value
$13.41
PnL
+$7.04
Record
54%
906-787 (1693)
Invested
$44.02
Value
$11.56
PnL
-$32.46
Record
52%
6711-6252 (12963)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$8.13
PnL
+$3.45
Record
52%
830-771 (1601)
Invested
$40.4
Value
$6.76
PnL
-$31.05
Record
52%
702-642 (1344)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$0.17
Record
52%
8455-7711 (16166)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.97
PnL
+$0.46
Record
74%
2370-822 (3192)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Carole Monnet — $4.6K
Venusian
Carole Monnet — $3.4K
Limousin
Carole Monnet — $2.8K
RN1
CTRMaria Herazo — $57.56
BillBenter2026
Carole Monnet — $45.25
LightParadox
CTRMaria Herazo — $13.41
CandleHammerDrums
CTRMaria Herazo — $11.56
MadridTime
CTRMaria Herazo — $8.13
1lovejump
CTRMaria Herazo — $6.76
ameisgoat11
Carole Monnet — $4.53