Sopo: Laura Samson vs Sofia Costoulas

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Laura Samson (50%) · Laura Samson at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 18

Laura Samson69¢Sofia Costoulas31¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Laura Samson

Consensus Traders

Laura Samson 50%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$29.02

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 68.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLaura Samson at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Laura Samson

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Laura Samson69%

Sofia Costoulas32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sofia Costoulas6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,812

Combined PnL+$26.13

Laura Samson6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,952

Combined PnL+$2.89

Sofia Costoulas — 50%Laura Samson — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Sofia Costoulasavg 32¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$18.46	31% 380-865 (1245)
65 6512395314597884	Laura Samsonavg 68¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$8.17	50% 3289-3245 (6534)
HV HVAB	Laura Samsonavg 67¢	$653.24	$377.73	-$0.2	39% 17-27 (44)
BA babybells	Laura Samsonavg 68¢	$282.2	$280.13	-$2.07	23% 120-406 (526)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Sofia Costoulasavg 33¢	$235.95	$243.1	+$7.15	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
TH thestingsnake	Laura Samsonavg 72¢	$226.95	$240.98	+$14.03	24% 120-370 (490)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Sofia Costoulasavg 33.9¢	$112.24	$114.26	+$2.02	30% 373-864 (1237)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Laura Samsonavg 70.3¢	$18.7	$17.95	-$0.74	56% 3843-3017 (6860)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sofia Costoulasavg 28¢	$13.95	$12.95	-$1	30% 373-868 (1241)
RN1<$100	Laura Samsonavg 61¢	$7.16	$7.22	+$0.06	57% 4029-3044 (7073)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sofia Costoulasavg 28¢	$5.6	$5.2	-$0.4	48% 662-711 (1373)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Sofia Costoulasavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.3	-$0.1	32% 285-613 (898)

VenusianCTR

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$1,181.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$18.46

Record

31%

380-865 (1245)

6512395314597884

Laura Samson

Invested

$1,111.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$8.17

Record

50%

3289-3245 (6534)

HVAB

Laura Samson

Invested

$653.24

Value

$377.73

PnL

-$0.2

Record

39%

17-27 (44)

babybells

Laura Samson

Invested

$282.2

Value

$280.13

PnL

-$2.07

Record

23%

120-406 (526)

FlaznorpCTR

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$235.95

Value

$243.1

PnL

+$7.15

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

thestingsnake

Laura Samson

Invested

$226.95

Value

$240.98

PnL

+$14.03

Record

24%

120-370 (490)

LightParadoxCTR

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$112.24

Value

$114.26

PnL

+$2.02

Record

30%

373-864 (1237)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$18.7

Value

$17.95

PnL

-$0.74

Record

56%

3843-3017 (6860)

LimousinCTR<$100

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$13.95

Value

$12.95

PnL

-$1

Record

30%

373-868 (1241)

RN1<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$7.16

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

4029-3044 (7073)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

662-711 (1373)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

Research grade

NeutralLaura Samson at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Laura Samson

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Laura Samson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.