Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz

9 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Hubert Hurkacz (36%) · Hubert Hurkacz at 51¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 9

Lorenzo Musetti50¢Hubert Hurkacz50¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hubert Hurkacz

Consensus Traders

Hubert Hurkacz 36%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.1K

Combined PnL

-$28.43

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralHubert Hurkacz at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hubert Hurkacz

9 of 25 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Musetti50%

Hubert Hurkacz51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hubert Hurkacz9 traders

Total Value$28.5K

Total Shares56,048

Combined PnL+$195.34

Lorenzo Musetti16 traders

Total Value$23.1K

Total Shares46,845

Combined PnL-$223.77

Hubert Hurkacz — 36%Lorenzo Musetti — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Hubert Hurkacz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLorenzo Musetti 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpHubert Hurkacz 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrLorenzo Musetti 67% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedLorenzo Musetti 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lorenzo Musetti 65% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Hubert Hurkaczavg 50¢	$12.5K	$12.8K	+$250	50% 225-221 (446)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$7.6K	$7.4K	-$151.34	37% 462-788 (1250)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Hubert Hurkaczavg 50.9¢	$6.9K	$6.8K	-$57.19	46% 390-453 (843)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.8¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$21.6	61% 13840-8746 (22586)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Hubert Hurkaczavg 50.3¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$13.09	38% 512-818 (1330)
VeryLucky888CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.5¢	$4.7K	$3.0K	+$15.66	58% 43592-31705 (75297)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Hubert Hurkaczavg 49¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$26.68	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
└ Hubert Hurkacz leg	Hubert Hurkaczavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$19.97
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$657.18	$677.3	+$6.71
SE sentrioARB<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$1.27	50% 24998-24716 (49714)
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$9.8
└ Hubert Hurkacz leg	Hubert Hurkaczavg 51¢	$870.25	$870.25	-$8.53
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Hubert Hurkaczavg 51¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0	50% 495-491 (986)
PL pltrkr111	Hubert Hurkaczavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$19.61	54% 745-625 (1370)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.9¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$36.82	50% 19812-20152 (39964)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$28.72	58% 48499-34661 (83160)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$1.0K	$980	-$20	49% 3953-4141 (8094)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$1.0K	$980	-$10	51% 3961-3861 (7822)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Hubert Hurkaczavg 50¢	$750	$765	+$15	54% 1272-1083 (2355)
nigiri99CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$744.8	$752.4	+$7.6	46% 7287-8594 (15881)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$673.93	$676.28	+$2.35	54% 5902-4952 (10854)
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$450	$445.5	-$4.5
└ Hubert Hurkacz leg	Hubert Hurkaczavg 49¢	$223.93	$230.78	+$6.85
RE RebornAthenaCTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 51¢	$600	$594.12	-$5.88	53% 2023-1823 (3846)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$588	$588	+$18	45% 404-499 (903)
38 38791873984189	Hubert Hurkaczavg 49.9¢	$552.08	$548.06	-$4.02	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
MA manoamano	Hubert Hurkaczavg 51.4¢	$244.25	$242.37	-$1.88	51% 526-504 (1030)
0xheavy888CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.8¢	$195.02	$194.04	-$0.98	56% 7456-5978 (13434)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$140	$141.4	+$1.4	48% 552-601 (1153)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$141.93	$139.65	-$2.27	46% 9226-10934 (20160)

Kch-Temp

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$12,500

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$250

Record

50%

225-221 (446)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$7,596.4

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$151.34

Record

37%

462-788 (1250)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$6,905.51

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$57.19

Record

46%

390-453 (843)

LilybaeumCTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$3,265.52

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$21.6

Record

61%

13840-8746 (22586)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$3,200

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$13.09

Record

38%

512-818 (1330)

VeryLucky888CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$4,685.94

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$15.66

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$2,628.13

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$26.68

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

Both legs:

Hubert Hurkacz$1,957.5449¢+$19.97

Lorenzo Musetti$657.1849¢+$6.71

sentrioARB<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$2,260.47

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.27

Record

50%

24998-24716 (49714)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Musetti$1,390.2249.2¢+$9.8

Hubert Hurkacz$870.2551¢-$8.53

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$2,142

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

495-491 (986)

pltrkr111

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$19.61

Record

54%

745-625 (1370)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,969.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$36.82

Record

50%

19812-20152 (39964)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,470

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

UpTheBluesCTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,436.08

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$28.72

Record

58%

48499-34661 (83160)

NotradecopyCTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,000

Value

$980

PnL

-$20

Record

49%

3953-4141 (8094)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,000

Value

$980

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

3961-3861 (7822)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$750

Value

$765

PnL

+$15

Record

54%

1272-1083 (2355)

nigiri99CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$744.8

Value

$752.4

PnL

+$7.6

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

EulhunterARB<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$673.93

Value

$676.28

PnL

+$2.35

Record

54%

5902-4952 (10854)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Musetti$45050¢-$4.5

Hubert Hurkacz$223.9349¢+$6.85

RebornAthenaCTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$600

Value

$594.12

PnL

-$5.88

Record

53%

2023-1823 (3846)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$588

Value

$588

PnL

+$18

Record

45%

404-499 (903)

38791873984189

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$552.08

Value

$548.06

PnL

-$4.02

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

manoamano

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$244.25

Value

$242.37

PnL

-$1.88

Record

51%

526-504 (1030)

0xheavy888CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$195.02

Value

$194.04

PnL

-$0.98

Record

56%

7456-5978 (13434)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$140

Value

$141.4

PnL

+$1.4

Record

48%

552-601 (1153)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$141.93

Value

$139.65

PnL

-$2.27

Record

46%

9226-10934 (20160)

Research grade

NeutralHubert Hurkacz at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hubert Hurkacz

9 of 25 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Hubert Hurkacz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLorenzo Musetti 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpHubert Hurkacz 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrLorenzo Musetti 67% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedLorenzo Musetti 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lorenzo Musetti 65% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hubert Hurkacz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.