Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

21 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold No (66%) · No at 96¢ · $153K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 66%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$152.6K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 95.5¢

+10% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No21 traders

Total Value$149.8K

Total Shares157,660

Combined PnL+$12.5K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares57,976

Combined PnL$-10.8K

No — 66%Yes — 34%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

66% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 10

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 16

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thoodr	Noavg 92.8¢	$59.3K	$60.7K	+$1.8K	96% 631-24 (655)
Erasmus.	Noavg 82.7¢	$22.5K	$25.8K	+$3.5K	65% 393-215 (608)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 77.8¢	$13.6K	$16.6K	+$3.1K	80% 437-110 (547)
Donny.T	Noavg 84.8¢	$13.3K	$13.8K	+$494.15	72% 484-187 (671)
AP apmt	Noavg 84.9¢	$10.3K	$11.5K	+$1.3K	74% 64-22 (86)
Talophex	Noavg 91.5¢	$7.8K	$7.4K	+$288.87	91% 929-95 (1024)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 81¢	$3.7K	$5.1K	+$716.64	88% 2229-292 (2521)
KE kevtp	Noavg 75.9¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$389.74	80% 227-58 (285)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 90.6¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$125.37	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$6.9K	$1.3K	$-5.6K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
JE Jest55	Noavg 94.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$8.86	75% 1028-338 (1366)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 89.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$69.47	97% 140-4 (144)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$3.3K	$642.45	$-2.7K	39% 196-304 (500)
2B9S	Noavg 17¢	$102	$570	+$471	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 86¢	$430	$475	+$47.5	77% 632-185 (817)
Slowroasted	Noavg 62.9¢	$309.52	$424.08	+$138.31	88% 1990-279 (2269)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 77¢	$228.84	$285	+$56.16	66% 955-482 (1437)
LinaBellCTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$1.3K	$260.21	-$934.29	64% 1197-678 (1875)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 77¢	$192.5	$237.5	+$46.25	59% 1027-717 (1744)
4751346	Noavg 80.6¢	$183.89	$206.39	+$22.5	72% 1257-483 (1740)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 94.6¢	$182.15	$184.48	+$2.33	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$1.0K	$180	-$820	36% 397-691 (1088)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 16.6¢	$252.22	$176.98	-$75.25	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.1¢	$106.78	$128.29	+$3.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.6¢	$179.28	$48.69	-$78.73
ME melonmanm<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$92.51	$95.01	+$2.5	65% 527-282 (809)
pup1CTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$485	$90	-$395	46% 1978-2361 (4339)

thoodr

Invested

$59,259.43

Value

$60.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Erasmus.

Invested

$22,469.46

Value

$25.8K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

65%

393-215 (608)

Kevindoto

Invested

$13,555.48

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

Donny.T

Invested

$13,283

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$494.15

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

apmt

Invested

$10,267.66

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

74%

64-22 (86)

Talophex

Invested

$7,761.36

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$288.87

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$3,690.85

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$716.64

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

kevtp

Invested

$1,740.42

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$389.74

Record

80%

227-58 (285)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,804.72

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$125.37

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,856.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

Jest55

Invested

$1,140.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$8.86

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$1,043.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$69.47

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,292.47

Value

$642.45

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

2B9S

Invested

$102

Value

$570

PnL

+$471

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

alwaysOn

Invested

$430

Value

$475

PnL

+$47.5

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

Slowroasted

Invested

$309.52

Value

$424.08

PnL

+$138.31

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$228.84

Value

$285

PnL

+$56.16

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

LinaBellCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,274.93

Value

$260.21

PnL

-$934.29

Record

64%

1197-678 (1875)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$192.5

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$46.25

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

4751346

Invested

$183.89

Value

$206.39

PnL

+$22.5

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

ghorrock

Invested

$182.15

Value

$184.48

PnL

+$2.33

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$180

PnL

-$820

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$252.22

Value

$176.98

PnL

-$75.25

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

No$106.7879.1¢+$3.48

Yes$179.2816.6¢-$78.73

melonmanm<$100

Invested

$92.51

Value

$95.01

PnL

+$2.5

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

pup1CTR

Yes

Invested

$485

Value

$90

PnL

-$395

Record

46%

1978-2361 (4339)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

66% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 10

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 16

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.5%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.