Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 47¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$55.43

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 46.9¢

-25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$664.71

Total Shares1,125

Combined PnL-$42.85

No5 traders

Total Value$515.29

Total Shares1,091

Combined PnL-$12.58

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793eCTR	Yesavg 65¢	$1.0K	$588.5	-$61.5	52% 302-275 (577)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 53¢	$230.92	$202.96	-$27.96	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 47.3¢	$147.95	$146.82	-$1.13	35% 558-1046 (1604)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 42.4¢	$103.62	$113.98	+$10.36	50% 7813-7864 (15677)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 41.1¢	$43.44	$49.19	+$5.75	28% 5957-15587 (21544)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 32.4¢	$25.6	$42.21	+$16.61	36% 635-1125 (1760)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 67.2¢	$20	$20	+$0	55% 5875-4772 (10647)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.6¢	$6.01	$7.04	+$1.03	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.6¢	$5.95	$6.96	+$1.02	35% 710-1327 (2037)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 38.9¢	$1.95	$2.33	+$0.39	37% 1395-2381 (3776)

0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793eCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$588.5

PnL

-$61.5

Record

52%

302-275 (577)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$230.92

Value

$202.96

PnL

-$27.96

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$147.95

Value

$146.82

PnL

-$1.13

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

smallreceipt

Invested

$103.62

Value

$113.98

PnL

+$10.36

Record

50%

7813-7864 (15677)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$43.44

Value

$49.19

PnL

+$5.75

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.6

Value

$42.21

PnL

+$16.61

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$20

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

5875-4772 (10647)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.01

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$1.03

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.95

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$1.02

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.39

Record

37%

1395-2381 (3776)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

46.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.