Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

20 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 93¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 4

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$44.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 92.5¢

+4% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$42.4K

Total Shares45,555

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares23,562

Combined PnL-$660.43

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 92% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RememberAmalek	Noavg 86.9¢	$8.6K	$9.2K	+$554.83	56% 973-769 (1742)
scottilicious	Noavg 91¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$75	82% 945-201 (1146)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 90.9¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$77.29	89% 4652-547 (5199)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 86.5¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$271.71	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 89.6¢	$4.1K	$4.3K	+$135.01	85% 311-57 (368)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 88.1¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$127.89	38% 20-32 (52)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 91¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$30	59% 1027-717 (1744)
debased	Noavg 85¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$111.59	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 87.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$64	94% 442-28 (470)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 88.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$26.58	82% 1758-394 (2152)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 91¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	+$27.61	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
mrworldwide	Noavg 87¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$66	69% 804-359 (1163)
Tigerofthehood	Noavg 86¢	$961.47	$1.0K	+$72.67	87% 179-26 (205)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 92¢	$920	$930	+$5	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
IN insidero	Noavg 91¢	$787.54	$804.44	+$12.58	76% 291-93 (384)
TBill1	Noavg 87¢	$696	$744	+$44	45% 154-188 (342)
ML MLJBASEBALLCTR	Yesavg 13.1¢	$1.3K	$738.65	-$555.72	64% 101-57 (158)
Talophex	Noavg 89.5¢	$447.5	$465	+$15	91% 929-95 (1024)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Noavg 86¢	$382.43	$411.17	+$28.74	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 8¢	$406.96	$381.53	-$25.44	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 8¢	$392.24	$367.72	-$24.51	47% 474-534 (1008)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Noavg 90¢	$129.98	$134.31	+$3.61	76% 102-32 (134)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$152.95	$129.48	-$8.63	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 88¢	$88.27	$93.29	+$4.51	40% 174-265 (439)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$70.76	$83.96	-$50.37	72% 6827-2621 (9448)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$8,583.77

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$554.83

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

scottilicious

Invested

$4,550

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$75

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

nonkenny90

Invested

$4,384.55

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$77.29

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

cocococococo

Invested

$4,018.07

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$271.71

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$4,121.84

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$135.01

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$2,560.24

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$127.89

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$1,820

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$30

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

debased

Invested

$1,264.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$111.59

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

HotDogs

Invested

$1,230.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$64

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$1,257.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$26.58

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,382.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$27.61

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

mrworldwide

Invested

$1,044

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$66

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

Tigerofthehood

Invested

$961.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$72.67

Record

87%

179-26 (205)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$920

Value

$930

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

insidero

Invested

$787.54

Value

$804.44

PnL

+$12.58

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

TBill1

Invested

$696

Value

$744

PnL

+$44

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

MLJBASEBALLCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,294.38

Value

$738.65

PnL

-$555.72

Record

64%

101-57 (158)

Talophex

Invested

$447.5

Value

$465

PnL

+$15

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

wokerjoesleeper

Invested

$382.43

Value

$411.17

PnL

+$28.74

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$406.96

Value

$381.53

PnL

-$25.44

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$392.24

Value

$367.72

PnL

-$24.51

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

TheFOMCGambler

Invested

$129.98

Value

$134.31

PnL

+$3.61

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$152.95

Value

$129.48

PnL

-$8.63

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$88.27

Value

$93.29

PnL

+$4.51

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$70.76

Value

$83.96

PnL

-$50.37

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 92% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.7%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.