Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (76%) · Yes at 92¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4

Yes92¢No8¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 76%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$155.38

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 92¢

+4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,468

Combined PnL+$148.17

No4 traders

Total Value$52.61

Total Shares647

Combined PnL+$7.21

Yes — 76%No — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4550h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

76% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Yesavg 92.9¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$30.59	60% 2581-1695 (4276)
SI SitsToPee	Yesavg 92.7¢	$630.53	$623.1	-$7.43	60% 742-497 (1239)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 89.7¢	$715.97	$246.21	+$5.03	45% 2879-3530 (6409)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 87¢	$222.97	$225.01	+$2.04	50% 2472-2433 (4905)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 42.4¢	$280.54	$166.07	+$100.52	54% 1855-1584 (3439)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 93.2¢	$179.17	$164.21	-$9.59	48% 7251-7943 (15194)
AU auros2<$100	Yesavg 93.3¢	$90.42	$88.93	-$0.57	—
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$15.04	$70.67	+$55.63	56% 18368-14297 (32665)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$68.57	$64.6	-$3.96	53% 23051-20286 (43337)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 72.3¢	$70.68	$59.35	+$12.66	77% 12489-3829 (16318)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$30.75	$41.72	+$10.97	44% 6570-8239 (14809)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$3.59	$28.21	+$24.62	76% 13009-4160 (17169)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Yesavg 93.2¢	$20	$18.33	-$0.31	49% 2678-2838 (5516)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 14.7¢	$10.53	$6.03	-$4.5	41% 2307-3348 (5655)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Yesavg 89.5¢	$58.31	$4.96	+$0.12	50% 273-268 (541)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 7.7¢	$2.31	$2.43	+$0.12	46% 10370-12093 (22463)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$1.8	$2.43	+$0.63	49% 8958-9484 (18442)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Yes

Invested

$2,550.28

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$30.59

Record

60%

2581-1695 (4276)

SitsToPee

Yes

Invested

$630.53

Value

$623.1

PnL

-$7.43

Record

60%

742-497 (1239)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$715.97

Value

$246.21

PnL

+$5.03

Record

45%

2879-3530 (6409)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$222.97

Value

$225.01

PnL

+$2.04

Record

50%

2472-2433 (4905)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$280.54

Value

$166.07

PnL

+$100.52

Record

54%

1855-1584 (3439)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$179.17

Value

$164.21

PnL

-$9.59

Record

48%

7251-7943 (15194)

auros2<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.42

Value

$88.93

PnL

-$0.57

Record

—

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.04

Value

$70.67

PnL

+$55.63

Record

56%

18368-14297 (32665)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.57

Value

$64.6

PnL

-$3.96

Record

53%

23051-20286 (43337)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.68

Value

$59.35

PnL

+$12.66

Record

77%

12489-3829 (16318)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$30.75

Value

$41.72

PnL

+$10.97

Record

44%

6570-8239 (14809)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.59

Value

$28.21

PnL

+$24.62

Record

76%

13009-4160 (17169)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$18.33

PnL

-$0.31

Record

49%

2678-2838 (5516)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$10.53

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$4.5

Record

41%

2307-3348 (5655)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.31

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

273-268 (541)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

10370-12093 (22463)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

8958-9484 (18442)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4550h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

76% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.