Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?

14 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (61%) · No at 81¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 4

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 61%

Total Value

$17.3K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 81¢

-1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 23 top traders (61%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares12,536

Combined PnL+$488.84

Yes9 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares33,060

Combined PnL+$830.48

No — 61%Yes — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

385h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 64% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 52% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 81.9¢	$6.0K	$4.9K	+$21.69	48% 7376-8077 (15453)
ME Melody626CTR	Yesavg 19.2¢	$4.1K	$4.6K	+$539.24	58% 731-538 (1269)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Noavg 79.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$116.35	60% 2683-1792 (4475)
BigMackyGCTR	Yesavg 21.1¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$103.1	20% 115-474 (589)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 80.2¢	$1.2K	$880.4	+$22.57	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$395.97	$506.58	+$110.61	51% 2575-2507 (5082)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 82¢	$472.3	$466.2	-$6.1	56% 16351-13106 (29457)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 80.4¢	$1.4K	$427.96	+$72.99	45% 2965-3662 (6627)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 87.9¢	$467.2	$418.02	-$49.17	65% 284-150 (434)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 81.8¢	$708.83	$367.18	+$73.33	51% 292-286 (578)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 80.9¢	$2.7K	$298.03	+$108.67	53% 8535-7609 (16144)
JE Jesetrading	No	$129	$129	-$18.68	67% 657-320 (977)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	Noavg 90.1¢	$112.63	$105	-$5.63	51% 154-147 (301)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93¢	$125.79	$77.13	-$22.49	77% 12684-3870 (16554)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 12.2¢	$491.93	$56.51	+$52.77	52% 30802-28940 (59742)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$97.43	$55.8	-$41.63	73% 206-75 (281)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 84.2¢	$2.1K	$55.51	+$63.64	34% 19149-36800 (55949)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$42.28	$42.28	+$16.71	— 4-0 (4)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$5.52	$27.65	+$22.14	58% 21162-15379 (36541)
GO god83743894	Noavg 40.4¢	$106.92	$20.21	+$70.92	43% 10598-14075 (24673)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$507.56	$17.03	+$23.04	56% 18813-14971 (33784)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$12.15	$16.64	+$4.49	53% 790-694 (1484)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 80.2¢	$168.69	$9.82	+$40.76	54% 12407-10640 (23047)

Gaditima

Invested

$6,004.19

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$21.69

Record

48%

7376-8077 (15453)

Melody626CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,070.94

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$539.24

Record

58%

731-538 (1269)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$1,827.71

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$116.35

Record

60%

2683-1792 (4475)

BigMackyGCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,785.49

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$103.1

Record

20%

115-474 (589)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,204.86

Value

$880.4

PnL

+$22.57

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$395.97

Value

$506.58

PnL

+$110.61

Record

51%

2575-2507 (5082)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$472.3

Value

$466.2

PnL

-$6.1

Record

56%

16351-13106 (29457)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,438.48

Value

$427.96

PnL

+$72.99

Record

45%

2965-3662 (6627)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$467.2

Value

$418.02

PnL

-$49.17

Record

65%

284-150 (434)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$708.83

Value

$367.18

PnL

+$73.33

Record

51%

292-286 (578)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$2,719.27

Value

$298.03

PnL

+$108.67

Record

53%

8535-7609 (16144)

Jesetrading

Invested

$129

Value

$129

PnL

-$18.68

Record

67%

657-320 (977)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$112.63

Value

$105

PnL

-$5.63

Record

51%

154-147 (301)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$125.79

Value

$77.13

PnL

-$22.49

Record

77%

12684-3870 (16554)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$491.93

Value

$56.51

PnL

+$52.77

Record

52%

30802-28940 (59742)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.43

Value

$55.8

PnL

-$41.63

Record

73%

206-75 (281)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$2,145.67

Value

$55.51

PnL

+$63.64

Record

34%

19149-36800 (55949)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.28

Value

$42.28

PnL

+$16.71

Record

—

4-0 (4)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.52

Value

$27.65

PnL

+$22.14

Record

58%

21162-15379 (36541)

god83743894

Invested

$106.92

Value

$20.21

PnL

+$70.92

Record

43%

10598-14075 (24673)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$507.56

Value

$17.03

PnL

+$23.04

Record

56%

18813-14971 (33784)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.15

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$4.49

Record

53%

790-694 (1484)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$168.69

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$40.76

Record

54%

12407-10640 (23047)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 23 top traders (61%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

385h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 64% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 52% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.5%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.