Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 10 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?

10 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 5.5¢

-89% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 22 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,518

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$717.08

Total Shares7,385

Combined PnL$-2.7K

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbit	Noavg 15.8¢	$316.39	$1.9K	+$1.5K	40% 730-1104 (1834)
AN anoin123	Noavg 13¢	$207.42	$1.5K	+$1.3K	45% 520-639 (1159)
SI SitsToPee	Noavg 13.2¢	$161.72	$1.1K	+$967.26	60% 742-497 (1239)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Noavg 63.8¢	$1.1K	$962.73	+$296.48	60% 2581-1695 (4276)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$4.4K	$535.61	-$47.4	45% 2879-3530 (6409)
└ No leg	Noavg 31.1¢	$128.8	$383.2	+$299.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.6¢	$498.87	$152.41	-$346.54
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 88.2¢	$1.5K	$528.49	-$158.64	50% 2472-2433 (4905)
KO korda77	Noavg 13¢	$47.43	$337.5	+$290.07	44% 6570-8239 (14809)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 37.6¢	$164.42	$278.49	+$179.07	48% 7251-7943 (15194)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 57.6¢	$271.51	$243.93	+$72.54	53% 23051-20286 (43337)
SO soapbubblesCTR	Yesavg 30.4¢	$981.19	$241.84	-$739.35	77% 23-7 (30)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 42.1¢	$132.41	$175.49	+$45.72	35% 18725-34748 (53473)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 87.8¢	$1.6K	$119.52	$-1.3K	54% 1855-1584 (3439)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 57.3¢	$605.22	$79.6	+$67.13	50% 273-268 (541)
HyperlongCTR	Yesavg 86¢	$645.86	$56.33	-$589.53	46% 309-360 (669)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$35.27	$47.55	+$12.28	54% 10268-8884 (19152)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 48.8¢	$72.08	$47	-$1.05	27% 532-1439 (1971)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$49.71	$41.43	-$8.28	67% 997-498 (1495)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$60	$37.5	-$22.5	72% 190-73 (263)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$24.88	$25.8	+$0.92	72% 14170-5468 (19638)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$95.54	$21.85	-$73.68	56% 606-468 (1074)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 82¢	$9.12	$21.2	-$15.6	41% 6357-9331 (15688)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2.48	$1.85	-$0.63	18% 357-1657 (2014)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.01	$0.09	+$0.07	31% 2661-5937 (8598)

BigRabbit

Invested

$316.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

40%

730-1104 (1834)

anoin123

Invested

$207.42

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

45%

520-639 (1159)

SitsToPee

Invested

$161.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$967.26

Record

60%

742-497 (1239)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$1,081.31

Value

$962.73

PnL

+$296.48

Record

60%

2581-1695 (4276)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,381.76

Value

$535.61

PnL

-$47.4

Record

45%

2879-3530 (6409)

Both legs:

No$128.831.1¢+$299.14

Yes$498.8724.6¢-$346.54

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$1,471.04

Value

$528.49

PnL

-$158.64

Record

50%

2472-2433 (4905)

korda77

Invested

$47.43

Value

$337.5

PnL

+$290.07

Record

44%

6570-8239 (14809)

Gaditima

Invested

$164.42

Value

$278.49

PnL

+$179.07

Record

48%

7251-7943 (15194)

cigarettes

Invested

$271.51

Value

$243.93

PnL

+$72.54

Record

53%

23051-20286 (43337)

soapbubblesCTR

Yes

Invested

$981.19

Value

$241.84

PnL

-$739.35

Record

77%

23-7 (30)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.41

Value

$175.49

PnL

+$45.72

Record

35%

18725-34748 (53473)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,593.63

Value

$119.52

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

1855-1584 (3439)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$605.22

Value

$79.6

PnL

+$67.13

Record

50%

273-268 (541)

HyperlongCTR

Yes

Invested

$645.86

Value

$56.33

PnL

-$589.53

Record

46%

309-360 (669)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$35.27

Value

$47.55

PnL

+$12.28

Record

54%

10268-8884 (19152)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$72.08

Value

$47

PnL

-$1.05

Record

27%

532-1439 (1971)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.71

Value

$41.43

PnL

-$8.28

Record

67%

997-498 (1495)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

72%

190-73 (263)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$24.88

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$0.92

Record

72%

14170-5468 (19638)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.54

Value

$21.85

PnL

-$73.68

Record

56%

606-468 (1074)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$9.12

Value

$21.2

PnL

-$15.6

Record

41%

6357-9331 (15688)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.48

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.63

Record

18%

357-1657 (2014)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.07

Record

31%

2661-5937 (8598)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 22 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.7%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1383.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1483.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.