Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?

16 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 94¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 4

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 94.1¢

+79% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,972

Combined PnL+$3.3K

No7 traders

Total Value$171.03

Total Shares2,833

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 81.7¢	$3.7K	$1.7K	+$234.93	45% 2879-3530 (6409)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 41.2¢	$617.01	$1.4K	+$782.05	48% 7251-7943 (15194)
LornaPredicts	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$1.1K	20% 2762-10914 (13676)
SO soapbubbles	Yesavg 49.9¢	$542.9	$1.0K	+$486.21	77% 23-7 (30)
SI SitsToPee	Yesavg 1.3¢	$19.7K	$521.07	+$514	60% 742-497 (1239)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 88.4¢	$980.8	$500.93	-$71.69	50% 2472-2433 (4905)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Yesavg 93.1¢	$448.27	$401.96	+$13.18	60% 2581-1695 (4276)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 94.7¢	$400	$378	-$0.8	56% 16091-12820 (28911)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 72¢	$633.98	$177.09	+$37.96	53% 23051-20286 (43337)
TH thoodrCTR	Noavg 95¢	$2.5K	$137.5	$-2.2K	97% 685-24 (709)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 0.9¢	$11.43	$113.97	+$102.54	49% 6263-6422 (12685)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Yesavg 96.5¢	$116.41	$110.01	-$2.28	67% 805-392 (1197)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Yesavg 96.1¢	$70.47	$61.83	-$6.38	56% 18368-14297 (32665)
AU auros2<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.19	$30.24	+$30.16	—
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 38.6¢	$66.88	$16.68	-$5.28	27% 532-1439 (1971)
G.Hchen<$100	Yesavg 69.4¢	$6.94	$9.45	+$2.51	56% 368-286 (654)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR	Noavg 4.8¢	$126.83	$9.28	+$1.15	42% 1214-1706 (2920)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Noavg 13.8¢	$6.9	$2.75	-$4.15	65% 602-328 (930)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 22.9¢	$25.41	$1.92	-$3.31	41% 301-442 (743)
SS ssddssd<$100	Yesavg 71.9¢	$1.44	$1.89	+$0.45	53% 366-331 (697)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 4.9¢	$1.47	$1.7	+$0.23	49% 8958-9484 (18442)
LA lava-lavaCTR<$100	Noavg 26.3¢	$5.76	$1.2	-$4.56	43% 583-768 (1351)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 66.6¢	$314.2	$1.02	+$80.43	50% 273-268 (541)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$3,667.78

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$234.93

Record

45%

2879-3530 (6409)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$617.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$782.05

Record

48%

7251-7943 (15194)

LornaPredicts

Yes

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

20%

2762-10914 (13676)

soapbubbles

Yes

Invested

$542.9

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$486.21

Record

77%

23-7 (30)

SitsToPee

Yes

Invested

$19,687.93

Value

$521.07

PnL

+$514

Record

60%

742-497 (1239)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$980.8

Value

$500.93

PnL

-$71.69

Record

50%

2472-2433 (4905)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Yes

Invested

$448.27

Value

$401.96

PnL

+$13.18

Record

60%

2581-1695 (4276)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$378

PnL

-$0.8

Record

56%

16091-12820 (28911)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$633.98

Value

$177.09

PnL

+$37.96

Record

53%

23051-20286 (43337)

thoodrCTR

Invested

$2,500

Value

$137.5

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

97%

685-24 (709)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$11.43

Value

$113.97

PnL

+$102.54

Record

49%

6263-6422 (12685)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Yes

Invested

$116.41

Value

$110.01

PnL

-$2.28

Record

67%

805-392 (1197)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.47

Value

$61.83

PnL

-$6.38

Record

56%

18368-14297 (32665)

auros2<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$30.24

PnL

+$30.16

Record

—

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$66.88

Value

$16.68

PnL

-$5.28

Record

27%

532-1439 (1971)

G.Hchen<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.94

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$2.51

Record

56%

368-286 (654)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR

Invested

$126.83

Value

$9.28

PnL

+$1.15

Record

42%

1214-1706 (2920)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$4.15

Record

65%

602-328 (930)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$25.41

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$3.31

Record

41%

301-442 (743)

ssddssd<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

366-331 (697)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.23

Record

49%

8958-9484 (18442)

lava-lavaCTR<$100

Invested

$5.76

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$4.56

Record

43%

583-768 (1351)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$314.2

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$80.43

Record

50%

273-268 (541)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.