US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 64¢ · $8K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$88.2

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 63.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 64%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares8,451

Combined PnL-$45.09

No3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,775

Combined PnL+$133.29

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GollumGekko	Yesavg 65.2¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$63.25	68% 2074-958 (3032)
paddaaCTR	Noavg 33.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$135.46	56% 836-645 (1481)
Car	Yesavg 58.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$74.63	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 64.7¢	$636.89	$633.84	-$3.04	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 60.2¢	$1.5K	$420	+$49.42	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.2¢	$313.04	$330.23	-$1.58
└ No leg	Noavg 31¢	$76.28	$89.77	+$51
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 78¢	$410.01	$336.5	-$76.14	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 63.4¢	$317.49	$319.99	+$2.5	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
Porx	Yesavg 57.4¢	$165.75	$185.6	+$19.85	66% 1482-769 (2251)
SE SeniorLaghetto	Yesavg 64¢	$128.64	$128.64	-$1.01	69% 404-180 (584)
Zaratustra<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$56.04	$57.84	+$1.36	62% 351-214 (565)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$41.98	$37.78	-$3.67	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$35	$36.5	+$1.5	38% 20-32 (52)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$2,364.46

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$63.25

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

paddaaCTR

Invested

$1,509.72

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$135.46

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

Car

Yes

Invested

$1,347.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$74.63

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$636.89

Value

$633.84

PnL

-$3.04

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,528.3

Value

$420

PnL

+$49.42

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

Yes$313.0460.2¢-$1.58

No$76.2831¢+$51

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$410.01

Value

$336.5

PnL

-$76.14

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$317.49

Value

$319.99

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Porx

Yes

Invested

$165.75

Value

$185.6

PnL

+$19.85

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

SeniorLaghetto

Yes

Invested

$128.64

Value

$128.64

PnL

-$1.01

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

Zaratustra<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.04

Value

$57.84

PnL

+$1.36

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Invested

$41.98

Value

$37.78

PnL

-$3.67

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Invested

$35

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 64%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.