Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (77%) · Yes at 62¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 21

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 77%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$806.53

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 62¢

+25% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 62%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares9,612

Combined PnL+$1.0K

No3 traders

Total Value$582.81

Total Shares1,494

Combined PnL-$235.22

Yes — 77%No — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

210h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Yesavg 27.3¢	$725.25	$1.6K	+$778.03	45% 112-138 (250)
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 38.6¢	$826.44	$1.3K	+$478.07	75% 540-176 (716)
TR troim	Yesavg 75.6¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$236.1	36% 397-691 (1088)
WA wan123	Yesavg 75.3¢	$623.75	$513.43	-$110.32	39% 196-304 (500)
FU Fulgurator	Yesavg 57.2¢	$401.76	$479.1	+$77.34	92% 61-5 (66)
M2 M2sx92kljs42CTR	Noavg 48¢	$527.3	$428.81	-$109.48	73% 350-129 (479)
ME melonmanm	Yesavg 62.5¢	$287.6	$285.2	-$2.4	65% 527-282 (809)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 70.2¢	$267.51	$236.22	-$37	50% 415-417 (832)
SE SeniorLaghetto	Yesavg 54.6¢	$124.35	$141.11	+$14.48	69% 404-180 (584)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 76.1¢	$252.12	$134.69	-$117.42	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 49.8¢	$105.18	$130.81	+$25.64	38% 20-32 (52)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 34¢	$68	$123.99	+$54	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
TBill1CTR<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$27.62	$19.3	-$8.31	45% 154-188 (342)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

Yes

Invested

$725.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$778.03

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$826.44

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$478.07

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

troim

Yes

Invested

$1,311.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$236.1

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

wan123

Yes

Invested

$623.75

Value

$513.43

PnL

-$110.32

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

Fulgurator

Yes

Invested

$401.76

Value

$479.1

PnL

+$77.34

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

M2sx92kljs42CTR

Invested

$527.3

Value

$428.81

PnL

-$109.48

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

melonmanm

Yes

Invested

$287.6

Value

$285.2

PnL

-$2.4

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$267.51

Value

$236.22

PnL

-$37

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

SeniorLaghetto

Yes

Invested

$124.35

Value

$141.11

PnL

+$14.48

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$252.12

Value

$134.69

PnL

-$117.42

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$105.18

Value

$130.81

PnL

+$25.64

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$68

Value

$123.99

PnL

+$54

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

TBill1CTR<$100

Invested

$27.62

Value

$19.3

PnL

-$8.31

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 62%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

210h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.9%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$56.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

156.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.