Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 18¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

10.8¢ → 17.9¢

+66% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares34,812

Combined PnL+$2.3K

No4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,586

Combined PnL-$9.56

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

708h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

45 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$2.2K	$3.3K	+$1.3K	45% 112-138 (250)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 9.6¢	$816.26	$1.9K	+$888.16	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Noavg 82.1¢	$821	$816	+$0	50% 415-417 (832)
LI lissartter	Noavg 83.5¢	$426.61	$423.46	-$3.16	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$335.08	$399.27	+$64.19	66% 1107-565 (1672)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 12.9¢	$209.57	$235.1	+$25.53	54% 229-195 (424)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 14.8¢	$138.97	$163.56	+$30.7	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$47.16	$40.83	-$6.32	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$11.08	$26.78	+$16.47	51% 527-509 (1036)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$14.31	$14.23	-$0.08	50% 357-357 (714)
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$1.86	$5.93	+$4.07	50% 1093-1094 (2187)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,201.02

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$816.26

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$888.16

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Invested

$821

Value

$816

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

lissartter

Invested

$426.61

Value

$423.46

PnL

-$3.16

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$335.08

Value

$399.27

PnL

+$64.19

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$209.57

Value

$235.1

PnL

+$25.53

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.97

Value

$163.56

PnL

+$30.7

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$47.16

Value

$40.83

PnL

-$6.32

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.08

Value

$26.78

PnL

+$16.47

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Invested

$14.31

Value

$14.23

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Albert 1953CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$4.07

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

708h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

45 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.6%

17.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$411.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

511.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.