Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 90¢ · $66K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$65.9K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 90¢

+10% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 90%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$64.4K

Total Shares71,392

Combined PnL+$5.6K

No3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares15,490

Combined PnL+$373.12

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

3528h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 79.6¢	$44.1K	$49.8K	+$5.7K	63% 353-204 (557)
TH thoodr	Yesavg 92.6¢	$9.2K	$8.9K	-$271.98	96% 631-24 (655)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 82.8¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$108.99	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
PM pmcb	Yesavg 77¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$192	91% 49-5 (54)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	Noavg 7.1¢	$960.12	$1.3K	+$407.08	45% 112-138 (250)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 92.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$61.41	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
Car	Yesavg 87.7¢	$683.61	$718.41	+$34.8	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 15¢	$300	$204	-$97	36% 397-691 (1088)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Yesavg 86¢	$106.72	$111.5	+$4.78	54% 229-195 (424)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Noavg 3.4¢	$31.52	$94.56	+$63.04	56% 973-770 (1743)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$50.04	$48.12	-$1.91	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
Dr.mett<$100	Yesavg 76.6¢	$34.43	$40.41	+$5.98	86% 1417-234 (1651)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Yes

Invested

$44,113.25

Value

$49.8K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$9,203.11

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$271.98

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$2,354

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$108.99

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

pmcb

Yes

Invested

$1,155

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$192

Record

91%

49-5 (54)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

Invested

$960.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$407.08

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,160.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$61.41

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Car

Yes

Invested

$683.61

Value

$718.41

PnL

+$34.8

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

troimCTR

Invested

$300

Value

$204

PnL

-$97

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

Dimpled-Foal

Yes

Invested

$106.72

Value

$111.5

PnL

+$4.78

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Invested

$31.52

Value

$94.56

PnL

+$63.04

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.04

Value

$48.12

PnL

-$1.91

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Dr.mett<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.43

Value

$40.41

PnL

+$5.98

Record

86%

1417-234 (1651)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 90%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

3528h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.3%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.