Consensus PnL -$54K · win rate 70% (150–63, n=213) · was PM monthly #823 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-54.1K
Record
150W / 63L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 213 settled
Batting Avg
20.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#753
Source
PM monthly #823
Trades
274
Markets
248
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 10 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No $6.9K · now 73¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No $6.8K · now 100¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (59% of 22)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $4.6K · now 11¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes $3.2K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 27)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $2.3K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (68% of 19)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No $1.8K · now 1¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?No $1.3K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes $971 · now 3¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
206 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 84¢- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 78% of 37 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 84% of 113 at an average 86¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 26% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 22% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 84%(won 94% of 173)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.